Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4127
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4127 · AMA → LAS
departs 5:35 PM CT · arrives 5:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
AMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AMA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.