Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4141
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4141 · DEN → SNA
departs 4:25 PM MT · arrives 5:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.