Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4149
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4149 · BNA → AUS
departs 5:25 AM CT · arrives 7:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BNA that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from BNA are usually not late
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.