Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4178
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4178 · RNO → DEN
departs 9:50 AM PT · arrives 1:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.