Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4186 · SAN → SJC
departs 7:50 PM PT · arrives 9:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 32%
Fri 10/9 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 53% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.