Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 418 · STL → VPS
departs 3:30 PM CT · arrives 5:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at VPS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to VPS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 2.2 in of rain forecast at VPS that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
VPS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
VPS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.75 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.