WN 4206 · DEN → DSM

took off 11:07 AM MT · expected to land 1:22 PM CT (scheduled 11:01 AM MT → 1:49 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DSM?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4206 · DEN → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?