Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4208
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4208 · BUR → OAK
departs 11:45 AM PT · arrives 1:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.