WN 4217 · TPA → SAT

took off 10:11 AM ET · landed 11:36 AM CT (scheduled 9:46 AM ET → 11:37 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ TPA is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4217 · TPA → SAT

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAT?