Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4234 · FLL → DEN
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 3:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
↑
1pm departures from FLL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.