Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 423
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 423 · ATL → AUS
departs 6:05 AM ET · arrives 7:25 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 2.09 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.