Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 424 · AUS → ATL
departs 8:45 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
8pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.05 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.