Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4251
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4251 · TPA → BWI
departs 5:30 AM ET · arrives 7:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Sun 10/4
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
5.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from TPA are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.