Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4258
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4258 · DAL → MDW
departs 7:35 PM CT · arrives 9:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 49% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.