Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4269
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4269 · MCI → BNA
departs 5:30 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.