Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4275
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4275 · ATL → BWI
departs 1:30 PM ET · arrives 3:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BWI that day
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.57 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.