WN 4280 · MDW → OAK

took off 10:15 AM CT · landed 12:12 PM PT (scheduled 10:00 AM CT → 12:38 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OAK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from MDW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ OAK is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4280 · MDW → OAK

Odds over time

How late did it get to OAK?