Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4289
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4289 · BNA → MCI
departs 7:55 AM CT · arrives 9:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
5.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into MCI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.40 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.