Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 428
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 428 · BDL → MDW
departs 7:15 PM ET · arrives 8:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BDL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.04 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.