Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 429
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 429 · AUS → HRL
departs 2:50 PM CT · arrives 4:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Thu 10/8 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at HRL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HRL?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at HRL that day
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
HRL usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
HRL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 1.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.