Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4313
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4313 · DEN → TUS
departs 9:00 PM MT · arrives 10:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 28%
Wed 10/7 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.