WN 431 · STL → CMH

departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 10:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from STL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 431 · STL → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?