Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4323
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4323 · BWI → MSY
departs 4:15 PM ET · arrives 5:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
4pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.