Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4340
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Yesterday
WN 4340 · MDW → DTW
departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.