Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4383
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4383 · IND → BWI
departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 7:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.