Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4386
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4386 · DEN → ELP
departs 4:10 PM MT · arrives 6:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/8 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±7 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.