WN 4398 · MCO → AUS

departs 1:21 PM ET · arrives 3:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 1pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.21 in

AUS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4398 · MCO → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?