WN 4405 · MCO → PHX

departs 2:20 PM ET · arrives 3:48 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

PHX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4405 · MCO → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?