WN 440 · BNA → ORF

departs 7:21 PM CT · arrives 10:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at ORF that day

↑ 7pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ ORF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.63 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 440 · BNA → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?