Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4439
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4439 · JAX → BWI
departs 6:55 AM ET · arrives 8:50 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at JAX that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.67 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.