Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4441
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4441 · DEN → LGA
departs 11:20 AM MT · arrives 5:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 43%
Fri 10/9 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.