Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4444
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4444 · TPA → BNA
departs 4:05 PM ET · arrives 5:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
43%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
43%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.09 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.