WN 445 · AUS → MSY

departs 6:10 AM CT · arrives 7:47 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ AUS is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.10 in

MSY (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.83 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 445 · AUS → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?