Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4462
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4462 · MDW → RDU
departs 2:35 PM CT · arrives 5:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at RDU that day
↑
2pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.