WN 4466 · SMF → LAS

took off 3:06 PM PT · landed 4:03 PM PT (scheduled 2:16 PM PT → 3:47 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LAS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from SMF are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4466 · SMF → LAS

Odds over time

How late did it get to LAS?