WN 4473 · BNA → PIT

departs 9:25 PM CT · arrives 12:05 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BNA that day

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

PIT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4473 · BNA → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?