Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4475
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4475 · BNA → MSY
departs 8:00 PM CT · arrives 9:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at BNA that day
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.