Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4481
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4481 · HOU → ELP
departs 7:50 AM CT · arrives 8:40 AM MT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
ELP is prone to delays
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into ELP at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.