Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4485
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4485 · RNO → SAN
departs 5:15 PM PT · arrives 6:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±6 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.