Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4501 · STL → LGA
departs 11:00 AM CT · arrives 2:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±1 pts
+30 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +30 pts in 24h
+30 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.