WN 4503 · BWI → PWM

departs 8:10 AM ET · arrives 9:52 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PWM?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ BWI is busy at that time

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BWI that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into PWM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.13 in

PWM (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4503 · BWI → PWM

Odds over time

How late will it get to PWM?