WN 4505 · SAN → HOU

departs 2:36 PM PT · arrives 7:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at HOU that day

↑ 2pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4505 · SAN → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?