Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4512 · SAT → DAL
departs 5:20 AM CT · arrives 6:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
5.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at SAT that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.