Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 451 IN THE AIR (OFF 7:21 AM PT, ETA 12:20 PM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

WN 451 · LAS → BNA

took off 7:21 AM PT · expected to land 12:20 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 451 · LAS → BNA

Odds over time