Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 451 LANDED 6:06 AM PT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

WN 451 · PHX → LAS

took off 5:25 AM MT · landed 6:06 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 451 · PHX → LAS

Odds over time