WN 4529 · LAS → SMF

departs 6:44 PM PT · arrives 8:21 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4529 · LAS → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?