Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4538 · BUR → PHX
departs 6:20 PM PT · arrives 7:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.