Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4541 · HOU → SMF
departs 12:40 PM CT · arrives 2:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.19 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.