Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4565
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4565 · DAL → PHX
departs 3:10 PM CT · arrives 3:35 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DAL that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at PHX that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.20 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.