Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4566
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4566 · BNA → LGA
departs 3:50 PM CT · arrives 7:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BNA that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.